Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Friday said the Indian economy is on a sustained path of revival and cited rise in GST collections and direct taxes to support her assertion. She further said that the confidence in the Indian stock market is growing as retail and small investors are keenly investing money in the share market. She was addressing the media in New Delhi.
Fitch Ratings on Wednesday cut India's growth forecast to 10 per cent for the current fiscal, from 12.8 per cent estimated earlier, due to slowing recovery post second wave of COVID-19, and said rapid vaccination could support a sustainable revival in business and consumer confidence. In a report, the global rating agency said the challenges for banking sector posed by the coronavirus pandemic have increased due to a virulent second wave in the first quarter of the financial year ending March 2022 (FY22). "Fitch Ratings revised down India's real GDP for FY22 by 280bp to 10 per cent, underlining our belief that renewed restrictions have slowed recovery efforts and left banks with a moderately worse outlook for business and revenue generation in FY22," it said. Fitch believes that rapid vaccination could support a sustainable revival in business and consumer confidence; however, without it, economic recovery would remain vulnerable to further waves and lockdowns.
All members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) -- Shashanka Bhide, Ashima Goyal, Jayanth R Varma, Mridul K Saggar, Michael Debabrata Patra and Shaktikanta Das -- had unanimously voted to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 4 per cent after the three-day meet of the panel earlier this month. Further, except Varma, other members voted to continue with the accommodative stance as long as necessary to revive and sustain growth on a durable basis and continue to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on the economy, while ensuring that inflation remains within the target going forward. Varma expressed reservations on this part of the MPC resolution, according to the minutes.
If the concerns over risking political capital are overcome, the long-term gains for the Indian economy will be immense, asserts A K Bhattacharya.
'Everything about farming is enjoyable and relaxing.'
Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday announced that comprehensive development of Vishnupad Temple corridor at Gaya and Mahabodhi Temple at Bodh Gaya in Bihar will be supported by the government to transform them into world-class pilgrim and tourist destinations. These corridors will be modelled on the successful Kashi Vishwanath Temple Corridor, she said. Vishnupad Temple is one of the most ancient Hindu shrines located next to the Falgu river, while the Mahabodhi Temple is a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Maintaining a rapid pace of the vaccination drive and quickly bridging healthcare infrastructure gaps across both urban and rural areas would emerge as the most sustainable stimulus for durable recovery of the Indian economy, says a report by the department of economic affairs.
'The real lifting of the economy will happen only if this momentum sustains in the coming months.'
The government should focus on growth, inflation management, fiscal policy and relationship with the Reserve Bank of India, according to RBS.
The highlights of RBI's bi-monthly monetary policy announced by Governor Shaktikanta Das:
There are several welcome standalone reforms, but these do not add up to a coherent strategy to achieve a $5 trillion economy or secure Aatmanirbharta, observes Rathin Roy.
This will be the first time that the Congress, since its ouster from power in 2014, will get the post of Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha. It failed to get the position in the past 10 years as its tally was below the requisite 10 per cent of total seats in the House, both in 2014 and 2019.
'As we enter 2025, it must be acknowledged that there is a convergence of capital, influential people (from business and politics) and technology deciding the destiny of others in the name of pride, patriotism, nationalism, nation building, all of it thinly veiled disguises for personal profit and glory,' asserts Shyam G Menon.
'This victory would mean a huge inspiration for the next generation who can say that coming from India I can be anybody I want to be if I work hard and acquire the right skills.' 'They could be the next President, members of the Senate, or another Sundar Pichai.'
This is following revival of demand from the corporate sector and small and medium enterprises (SMEs), even as a nascent economic recovery is taking shape. Credit growth of scheduled commercial banks had accelerated to 9.2 per cent year-on-year (YoY) by the end of December 2021 after breaching the 7 per cent-mark in November, for the first time since April 2020.
Now that the economy is growing at a higher-than-expected rate, it is time to accelerate the pace of fiscal consolidation, and the Budget could be a good starting point, argues Rajesh Kumar.
Stressing that economic growth will only move upwards, the Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday pegged the GDP growth rate for the next financial year at 10.5 per cent, though a tad lower than the government's projection of 11 per cent. The projection is in line with the estimates in the Union Budget 2021-22 presented in Parliament earlier this week. The Economic Survey, tabled by the government in Parliament recently, has projected that the economy will grow at 11 per cent, up from an estimated historic decline of 7.7 per cent in 2020-21, on account of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Shigeru Ishiba is expected to prioritise strengthening Japan's military capabilities and fostering deeper international partnerships, particularly with India, with whom Japan shares significant strategic interests, explains Dr Rajaram Panda.
Slamming the Budget, senior Congress leader P Chidambaram on Saturday said the Modi government was in complete denial that the economy faces a "grave macro economic challenge" and it has given up on reviving the economy, accelerating growth or creating jobs. There is nothing in the Budget that leads one to believe that growth will revive in 2020-21 and the claim of 6 to 6.5 per cent growth next year is "astonishing and even irresponsible", the former finance minister said at a press conference.
Gold seems to be losing its glitter in India due to a rise in prices. Demand in Q2CY24 was 149.7 tonnes - a 5 per cent drop compared to 158.1 tonnes in the same period last year, according to a report by the World Gold Council (WGC). Demand by value in April-June 2024 stood at Rs 93,850 crore, up by 14 per cent compared to Rs 82,530 crore in the same period last year.
Uptick in growth projected in second half of current fiscal based on 10 factors including higher FDI flows, build up of demand pressure, positive GST revenue growth
At a pre-Budget meeting, the FM was asked to ensure that NBFCs come out of the liquidity crisis they are facing with the help of RBI. They also spoke about the futility of trying to achieve a 3 per cent fiscal deficit target over the medium term.
The share of equity and investment funds in the total financial wealth of households increased by more than 50% between 2011-2012 and 2022-2023.
However, Icra Rating Principal Economist Aditi Nayar feels that the numbers are a bit too optimistic and need real heavy-lifting by the Centre and the states. "The survey forecasts on real and nominal GDP will require a substantial push from Central and state spending as private sector capacity expansion is anticipated to be intermittent, and sector-specific in the next couple of quarters," she said. Nayar added that private consumption is likely to chart a differentiated recovery across income and age groups. Based on the comments made in the Survey, she expects the Union Budget to incorporate a growth in gross tax revenue of 15-16 per cent.
It is to be seen if SBI under Setty, who will have a three-year term, can ride the economic cycle to take SBI to new heights, navigating some of these challenges.
The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday projected a GDP growth of 7 per cent for 2024-25 financial year, which is lower than the 7.3 per cent expansion estimated for the current fiscal. Announcing the bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said rural demand continues to gather pace, urban consumption remains strong and investment cycle is gaining steam on the back of increased capex.
Pinning hopes on the newly set up Cabinet Committee on Investment (CCI), the Economic Survey today said that specific issues facing the infrastructure sector need to be resolved to revive investment climate and propel sustainable growth.
'There is a misconception that gold is a dead asset in India.' 'Around 30 per cent of agriculture loans are collateralised by gold, Soumya Kanti Ghosh and Saket Hishikar, economists at the SBI, point out.
'We expect market consolidation and recommend buying during market dips.'
The government will provide free visas to 5 lakh tourists visiting India, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Monday. Announcing measures to revive the tourism sector battered by Covid-19, Sitharaman said financial support would be provided to more than 11,000 registered tourist guides, travel and tourism stakeholders. She said once the visa issuance for international travel is restarted, the first five lakh tourists will be issued visas free of charge.
Amid prolonged uncertainty, continued policy support will be crucial for sustained economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic, Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das said at the recent meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee. "In this period of prolonged uncertainty, it would be wise to remain agile and respond in a gradual, calibrated and well telegraphed manner to the emerging challenges," opined Das, according to the minutes of the MPC meeting released by the Reserve Bank on Thursday. Observing that economic recovery from the pandemic remains incomplete and uneven, he said, "continued support from various policies remains crucial for a sustained recovery." The governor said the renewed surge in international crude oil prices, however, requires close monitoring.
At the core of Sharif's initiatives is the belief that Pakistan's economic revival is not possible until it has improved and tension-free relations with neighbouring countries, particularly India and Afghanistan, said Tariq Fatemi, the Prime Minister's Special Assistant on Foreign Affairs.
'Rather than taking a very short-term view on the markets, equity investing should be premised on longer term growth opportunities.'
'I hope the trend is sustainable and that economic activity accelerates going forward.'
Reports (not denied by India) that the USA had 'for the first time provided real-time details to their Indian counterparts on the Chinese positions and force strength in advance of a PLA incursion' into Tawang at the LAC in December 2022, helping India thwart China's expansionist designs, show how operationally effective the USA-India friendship has become on the ground. A engaging excerpt from Sreeram Chaulia's must-read new book, Friends: India's Closest Strategic Partners.
According to latest data, crops have been sown in around 72.13 million hectares, which is 8.90 per cent less than the same period last year.
The world's largest economy, the US, is now in recession for 18 straight months, one of the longest since the 1930s Great Depression, amid rising hopes of an early economic revival.
'At this stage, you should distribute money and food.' 'Like you queue up to vote, let people queue up to collect this.' 'This will arrest the decline in demand which will have a multiplier effect on the demand side for the economy as a whole.' 'The government should earmark about 2% of the GDP for this.' 'And this should be the first step to revive the economy.'
For India to view the new Sri Lankan leadership only through the prism of the past or through their narrow view on China, is fraught with possibilities that should be avoided, asserts N Sathiya Moorthy.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is likely to strike a fine balance between being fiscally prudent and growth supportive when she presents her fourth straight budget on Tuesday, which is expected to have plans to boost spending to revive investment and create jobs. The Budget for the fiscal year starting April 1, 2022 is likely to raise spending on infrastructure to set the economy on a firmer footing. The stage for the Budget presentation was set by the Economic Survey stating that the government has the fiscal space to do more to support the economy that is forecast to grow at a healthy 8-8.5 per cent growth in the 2022-23 fiscal.
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